The best online Debate website - DebateIsland.com! The only Online Debate Website with Casual, Persuade Me, Formalish, and Formal Online Debate formats. We’re the Leading Online Debate website. Debate popular topics, Debate news, or Debate anything! Debate online for free!
Is China likely to become a World leader by 2030?
in Global
Debra AI Prediction
Arguments
  Considerate: 90%  
  Substantial: 40%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 95%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 8.8  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 97%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 89%  
  Substantial: 96%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 96%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 12.82  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 97%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 71%  
  Substantial: 98%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 98%  
  Sentiment: Negative  
  Avg. Grade Level: 11.32  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 100%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 93%  
  Substantial: 27%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 87%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 7.34  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 94%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 92%  
  Substantial: 17%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 100%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 10.44  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 96%  
  Learn More About Debra
China has beem successful with a culture of copying, not innovating (in many cases illegally). That is not a foundation of World Leadership.
- Walt Disney
  Considerate: 94%  
  Substantial: 98%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 94%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 11.46  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 96%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 98%  
  Substantial: 97%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 95%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 8.98  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 97%  
  Learn More About Debra
China has come a long way, but they have a much longer way to go. Those living on the coast are doing rather well, but the rest of the country not so much.
  Considerate: 84%  
  Substantial: 61%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 97%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 4.54  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 97%  
  Learn More About Debra
http://https//geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/china-urban-disposable-income.jpg
China cannot sustain the growth rate they have enjoyed for the last 30 years. As growth slows, unemployment will rise and economic inequality that is already incredibly high will spill over to become a political issue.
  Considerate: 92%  
  Substantial: 77%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 98%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 10.52  
  Sources: 3  
  Relevant (Beta): 7%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 93%  
  Substantial: 24%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 88%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 3.3  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 94%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 94%  
  Substantial: 99%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 90%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 11.02  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 97%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 95%  
  Substantial: 93%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 91%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 10.54  
  Sources: 6  
  Relevant (Beta): 54%  
  Learn More About Debra
China's weaknesses are that wages are rising and have so far they have been less innovative than the west.
Almost everything which China produces, from televisions to automobiles and from the computer to space going rockets are all inventions/discoveries of western scientists.
The innovative nature of the west will ensure that we stay ahead of the manufacturers of cheap, and all too often shoddy western imitations.
  Considerate: 89%  
  Substantial: 99%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 100%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 12.52  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 99%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 89%  
  Substantial: 96%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 100%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 8.98  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 99%  
  Learn More About Debra
pro: they have lots of scale and we are seeing some innovation out of China. Their innovation is different than US, but they get really good at doing things cheaper and cheaper.
con: if their middle class get to speak up then the artistically low wages and cost to their society (like environmental concerns) will add cost to their services and will make it less competitive.
I lean towards saying no.
  Considerate: 93%  
  Substantial: 99%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 95%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 10.74  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 99%  
  Learn More About Debra
Also, manufacturing of the last couple of centuries relied on low cost labor. As ratio of robots to people will exponentially increase in manufacturing process, Chinese competitive advanatage will be pressured
  Considerate: 97%  
  Substantial: 95%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 92%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 12.44  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 97%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 83%  
  Substantial: 54%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 91%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 12.48  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 94%  
  Learn More About Debra
is it because of overall capability of cheap labor? The labor part will be less and less important as technology will play a bigger role. At the same time Chinese labor will continue to get more expensive as their central government is easing costly/controversial currency manipulation
  Considerate: 91%  
  Substantial: 97%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 97%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 11.22  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 97%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 81%  
  Substantial: 60%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 94%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 10.16  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 99%  
  Learn More About Debra
US GDP per capita in 2016: $57,638.16 USD
China GDP per capita in 2016: $8,123.18 USD
US GDP growth rate currently: ~4%
China GDP growth rate currently: ~6.5%
The Chinese growth has been steadily decreasing for a long time, and the US growth tends to fluctuate up and down. Let us take the worst case scenario: the US growth reverts back to the standard 2%, and China maintains 6.5% forever. At this rate, according to my calculations in Python, China will only catch up with the US GDP per capita in 46 years, that is by 2064.
Assuming the US GDP per capita stays at 4%, we get a much more distant prediction: the GDP per capita will equalize by 2099.
As you can see, 2030 is off by a long shot. Unless either the US system experiences an unbelievable meltdown which will make Great Depression look like a child's play, or China suddenly experiences unprecedented economical growth due to development of the most revolutionary technology since the wheel, there is absolutely no way China can compare in any way to the US in the nearest few decades.
Now, if you want to talk about the overall GDP, i.e. the overall economical power, then China does have a chance to surpass the US in this regard by, I would say, 2040. But China still will not have much of what the US has: abundant military presence around the world, trust and support from dozens of allies and over a hundred "satellites", technological and scientific superiority... At most, China can take place of Soviet Union in the new cold war - but it cannot hope to seriously compete with the leading Western democracy, unless it seriously restructurizes its model.
  Considerate: 88%  
  Substantial: 100%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 96%  
  Sentiment: Positive  
  Avg. Grade Level: 11.94  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 98%  
  Learn More About Debra
  Considerate: 97%  
  Substantial: 11%  
  Spelling & Grammar: 100%  
  Sentiment: Neutral  
  Avg. Grade Level: 7.24  
  Sources: 0  
  Relevant (Beta): 94%  
  Learn More About Debra